The recent BAFTA nominations have introduced both clarity and complexity into the 2026 Oscar race, setting the stage for an intriguing awards season. Paul Thomas Anderson's film, 'One Battle After Another,' garnered an impressive 14 nominations, closely trailing the all-time BAFTA record set by 'Gandhi' in 1982. This strong showing positions it alongside past Best Film winners such as 'All Quiet on the Western Front' (2022), 'The King’s Speech' (2010), and 'Atonement' (2007), suggesting a potential triumph for the revolutionary drama. All five leading actors from 'One Battle After Another' also received nods, including Chase Infiniti, who surprisingly missed an Oscar nomination for Best Actress last week. This series of nominations follows the Academy Award announcements, which is an unusual sequence in most awards cycles, underscoring BAFTA's crucial role as a precursor to the Oscars. Historically, BAFTA tends to distribute its accolades more broadly rather than heavily favoring a single film, contrasting with the Oscars' occasional sweeps. This approach could lead to a diverse array of winners at the upcoming February 22nd ceremony, as the top five contenders for Best Picture are now established, turning attention to the subtle indicators that might predict the ultimate winners at both BAFTA and Oscar night.
The BAFTA nominations also offered some notable surprises and insights into individual categories, influencing the competitive landscape for performers. Historically, BAFTA has favored European storytelling, which bodes well for 'Sentimental Value.' This film could emulate the success of 'The Banshees of Inisherin,' emerging as a strong multi-award contender with potential wins in categories like Original Screenplay and International Feature, and possibly acting awards for Stellan Skarsgård and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, both of whom were overlooked by the Screen Actors Guild. Meanwhile, 'Marty Supreme,' with its robust 11 nominations, offers a significant opportunity for Timothée Chalamet to solidify his position as a frontrunner in the Best Actor race. BAFTA's voting body places less emphasis on age compared to the Academy, as evidenced by its past award to a 14-year-old Jamie Bell for 'Billy Elliot.' However, the biggest shock was the omission of 'Train Dreams' from the Adapted Screenplay nominations, a film that was considered a dark horse contender for an Oscar. This absence leaves 'One Battle After Another' in a dominant position, with Chloe Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell's 'Hamnet,' which also received 11 nominations, as a strong challenger. Additionally, 'Sinners' secured 13 significant nominations, the highest ever for a film by a Black director, refuting earlier perceptions of its international standing. Despite Michael B. Jordan and Wunmi Mosaku receiving expected nominations, Delroy Lindo's snub, despite his Oscar nomination for Best Supporting Actor, highlights the divergent paths of various awards. His ability to win an Oscar now hinges on the outcomes of the SAG and BAFTA awards. Skarsgard's once-clear path has also become uncertain, with Critics Choice favoring Jacob Elordi for 'Frankenstein' and the Golden Globe going to Skarsgard, creating a fragmented landscape among the precursors. The upcoming SAG/AFTRA Actor Awards on March 1st will be a critical event before final Oscar voting commences, especially since neither Skarsgard nor Lindo are nominated. If Benicio Del Toro wins for 'One Battle After Another,' it would further complicate the race, potentially making BAFTA an unexpected but highly influential factor.
A significant new factor this awards season is the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences' (AMPAS) revised viewing protocol, which mandates members to confirm they have watched all nominated films in a category before casting their vote. This policy, aimed at enhancing the integrity and credibility of the awards process, involves digital tracking via the Academy Screening Room and self-reported viewings, building on an existing framework familiar to voters. This means Oscar voters are now required to diligently watch all contenders, a change that has been positively received by many members who have advocated for it for years. While BAFTA employs a similar honor system for its viewing requirements, the new AMPAS rule could profoundly affect voting dynamics. For instance, if a member watches only the ten Best Picture nominees, they would gain voting access to nine of the 24 categories. Watching additional films from non-Best Picture categories, such as 'Blue Moon,' 'If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,' 'Song Sung Blue,' and 'Weapons,' would unlock access to the remaining acting categories. This intensified scrutiny could either disadvantage films with singular recognition or significantly benefit them, as voters would genuinely engage with each performance. For instance, watching 'Weapons' could illuminate Amy Madigan's brilliant performance, helping voters look past her surprising BAFTA snub. Categories like Makeup and Hairstyling, with sole representation from films like 'Kokuho,' 'The Smashing Machine,' and 'The Ugly Stepsister,' could see their winners determined solely by the branch members. This season's outcomes will depend less on statistics and more on the visceral reaction of industry voters to each film and performance, fostering a more thoughtful and engaged voting process. The shift toward mandatory viewing ensures a more informed decision-making process, promoting fairness and a deeper appreciation for cinematic artistry across all nominated works, ultimately elevating the credibility of the awards.