The Swiss watch industry experienced a notable uptick in exports to the U.S. market in December 2025, primarily due to the easing of tariffs. This late-year boost, however, was insufficient to counteract a broader negative trend, as total annual exports for 2025 recorded a decrease in both monetary value and unit volume. The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry reported a nearly 20% surge in value for U.S. exports last December, contributing to an overall monthly increase of 3.3% to CHF 2.1 billion. This surge followed the reduction of U.S. tariffs on Swiss goods to 15% from a previous high of 39%, prompting Swiss brands to expedite shipments when conditions were favorable. Despite this, the overall yearly exports declined by 1.7% in value to approximately CHF 24.4 billion and by 4.8% in volume to about 14.6 million units, marking the second consecutive year of contraction after a post-pandemic boom in 2022 and 2023. Remarkably, the U.S. market showed resilience, with exports decreasing by only 0.5% in value for the entire year, even with increased costs and tighter retail margins.
Market analysts point to a clear divergence within the watch industry, separating high-value, limited-production brands from more accessible, mass-market manufacturers. According to Swiss bank Vontobel, if watches priced at CHF 20,000 or more are excluded, Swiss exports experienced a roughly 7% decline in value in 2025, and a 15% drop over a two-year period. This indicates that a handful of prestigious brands, including Rolex and Cartier, are disproportionately influencing the aggregate statistics. The disparity has significant implications for the industrial ecosystem in regions like the Jura, where many component suppliers and subcontractors predominantly serve brands in the CHF 200–3,000 price range. These smaller entities are facing intensified pressure on their production volumes and order books, highlighting the vulnerability of the broader industry to market shifts and economic headwinds.
Looking ahead, 2026 is anticipated to present ongoing challenges for the Swiss watch industry. Factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, the stability of U.S. financial markets, and domestic pressures from a strong Swiss franc and rising material costs are expected to influence performance. While demand in Asia, particularly China, remains a point of concern, there are nascent indications of potential stabilization in what was once the largest single market for Swiss watches before being surpassed by the U.S. in 2022. Forecasts suggest a modest 4% increase in Swiss watch exports for 2026, with growth likely driven more by price adjustments and product mix rather than a substantial rebound in sales volume. This strategy reflects brands' continued reliance on premium pricing and controlled allocation policies for highly coveted models. Recent financial reports from major luxury groups like Richemont and LVMH, showing sales increases in their watch divisions towards the end of 2025, underscore the critical role of high-end brands in maintaining industry momentum.
The current landscape calls for adaptability and innovation. Brands must focus on creating genuine value, fostering strong customer relationships, and embracing sustainable practices to navigate these turbulent times. The industry's long-term success will hinge on its ability to evolve, cater to diverse consumer preferences, and maintain its reputation for excellence and craftsmanship in an increasingly competitive global market.